海辰储能IPO，一场价格内卷下的豪赌？

Core Viewpoint - Haicheng Energy's aggressive low-price expansion strategy has led to significant profitability issues and cash flow crises, impacting the entire energy storage industry and extending price wars from domestic to international markets [2][19]. Group 1: Low-Price Expansion and Its Consequences - Haicheng Energy's rise is characterized by a scale expansion strategy that sacrifices profits, relying on low prices to capture market share, which disrupts its profitability structure [20][21]. - In September 2023, Haicheng won a project in Saudi Arabia at a price of $73-75 per kWh, setting a record for the lowest price outside China, significantly below the average in Europe and the US [20]. - In the first half of 2025, Haicheng's energy storage output reached 30 GWh, but its revenue was only 5.45 billion yuan, less than half of its competitor EVE Energy's 10.3 billion yuan [3][21]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Profitability Issues - Haicheng reported losses of 1.776 billion yuan in 2022 and 1.975 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected profit of 288 million yuan in 2024 largely due to government subsidies of 414 million yuan [21][22]. - The gross profit margin in the domestic market is only 8.1%, significantly lower than competitors like CATL and EVE, and the margin in the US market dropped from 50% to 36.5% [22][24]. - The average price of energy storage batteries fell from 0.8 yuan/Wh in 2022 to 0.3 yuan/Wh in 2024, indicating a severe decline in profitability [22][24]. Group 3: Industry-Wide Impact and Challenges - Haicheng's low-price strategy has created a ripple effect, forcing competitors to lower their prices, leading to widespread losses across the industry [27][28]. - Over 17,000 energy storage-related companies have been deregistered or shut down in 2024 due to the inability to withstand price pressures, affecting innovation and investment in technology [27][28]. - The supply chain has also suffered, with Haicheng extending payment terms to suppliers, leading to increased financial strain on upstream companies [27][28]. Group 4: International Market Challenges - Haicheng's attempt to replicate its low-price strategy in international markets has faced backlash due to policy barriers and market dynamics, particularly in the US where it lost subsidy eligibility [29][31]. - Revenue from the US market dropped to 821 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with significant declines in key customer revenues [31][32]. - The company's strategy of sharing core technology with local partners in India poses long-term risks of losing market dominance [32][33]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Haicheng's repeated attempts to go public are seen as a means to alleviate financial strain, but reliance on government subsidies and loans has led to a fragile cash flow situation [33][34]. - The company must shift from a low-price dependency to a focus on technological innovation and quality to avoid ongoing profitability challenges [33][34]. - The energy storage industry needs to establish a healthy competitive environment that prioritizes R&D and sustainable practices to ensure long-term growth [33][34].