Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold and silver prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. non-farm employment data, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][7]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm employment data for November showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of around 50,000, indicating a potential short-term recovery in the job market [2][8]. - In contrast, the October non-farm employment data was significantly revised downwards from an initial increase to a decrease of 105,000 jobs, reflecting pressures on the job market due to government shutdowns and economic fluctuations [2][8]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the expected 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021, suggesting a deepening of labor market slack despite the job growth [2][8]. - Retail sales data exhibited a mixed pattern, with overall sales being flat while core sales showed strength, highlighting structural characteristics of U.S. consumer spending [2][8]. Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Policy - The recent economic data has not provided a clear signal regarding the U.S. economy or Federal Reserve policy, leading to increased market expectation divergence [3][9]. - The strong non-farm job growth and robust core retail sales suggest some resilience in the U.S. economy, potentially limiting aggressive easing measures by the Federal Reserve [3][9]. - Conversely, the downward revision of October's non-farm data, the rising unemployment rate, and underwhelming overall retail sales indicate ongoing short-term economic pressures, leaving room for future policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [3][9]. Geopolitical Developments - President Trump is reportedly interviewing another candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position, Christopher Waller, who has been a proponent of interest rate cuts [3][9]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the Netherlands and announced that a Ukrainian negotiation team would visit the U.S. to discuss plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][9]. Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market has shown signs of correction after two days of high volatility, with a high position candlestick pattern indicating some caution among bulls [4][10]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at approximately $4,355, while support is noted around the $4,300 level [4][10]. - The hourly chart indicates potential consolidation within a high triangle range, with critical levels to watch being around $4,330 for resistance and $4,285-$4,280 for support [4][10]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests focusing on a short-term range between $4,330 and $4,280, with a broader range extending to $4,350-$4,250 [5][11]. - Market participants are advised to monitor how the market reacts to the conflicting economic data to determine future trading directions [5][11].
李鑫恒:黄金非农分化乱市场 今天看如何消化
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-17 05:20