全球绿氢市场将迎爆发式增长

Core Insights - The global green hydrogen market is expected to experience explosive growth, with the market size projected to increase from $2.79 billion in 2025 to nearly $75 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60% [1] - The industry is currently facing a contradiction between long-term scaling prospects and short-term implementation challenges, including project delays and policy disputes [1] Market Drivers - The primary drivers of market growth include global net-zero emissions commitments, a surge in renewable energy installations, and rising demand for clean transportation solutions [1] - These factors are anticipated to facilitate a rapid transition from the current pilot phase to industrialization and commoditization by 2032 [1] Technology and Energy Supply - Alkaline electrolysis technology is expected to dominate the market with a 61.2% share in 2024, benefiting from low capital expenditure and high reliability due to over 20 years of industrial application [1] - Wind energy is projected to be the leading renewable energy source for green hydrogen production, contributing 48.9% of the market share in 2024, particularly benefiting from offshore wind's capacity factor exceeding 50% [1] End-User Demand - The transportation sector is projected to account for 57.7% of the green hydrogen market in 2024, driven by heavy-duty transport, long-haul freight, and shipping, where battery electric solutions face limitations [2] - There is a notable divergence in current green hydrogen demand, which remains concentrated in traditional industrial applications like refining and ammonia production, highlighting a gap between operational realities and future demand focus [2] Regional Development - North America is expected to be the fastest-growing region for green hydrogen, with a CAGR of 69.7%, largely driven by the tax credit provisions of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act [2] - Despite this growth potential, the region faces uncertainties related to the Treasury Department's guidance on hydrogen production, which could impact project development timelines [2] Industry Challenges - Major companies like Shell and BP have recently scaled back or canceled key projects due to regulatory uncertainties and higher-than-expected renewable electricity costs [2] - Analysts suggest that the industry is transitioning from speculative announcements to tangible projects with purchase agreements and viable economic models, which is crucial for realizing the market potential of $75 billion [2]