现货白银大涨4%创新高！有色金属ETF(512400)持续上攻涨近4%，白银供需缺口或将持续扩大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in silver prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances, macroeconomic conditions, and increased investment interest, marking silver as one of the most watched investment commodities of the year [1][2][3] - As of December 17, 2025, the silver market has seen a historic rally, with spot silver prices reaching $66.36 per ounce, a 4% increase, and COMEX silver futures peaking at $64.74 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 120%, significantly outpacing gold's approximately 60% rise [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the inclusion of silver in the U.S. critical minerals list, has bolstered silver's strategic value and liquidity [2][3] Group 2 - Short-term forecasts suggest that silver prices may experience high volatility due to profit-taking pressures following the Fed's expected rate cut, while ongoing tightness in the silver market could lead to significant price adjustments [2] - Long-term projections indicate that global silver supply will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% from 2024 to 2027, constrained by rising production costs and limited supply elasticity, while demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% [3] - The global silver supply-demand gap is anticipated to widen from 2025 onwards, reaching deficits of 5,347 tons in 2025, 6,223 tons in 2026, and 6,791 tons in 2027, supporting a sustained high pricing environment for silver [3]