Tryg A/S - Q4 2025 pre-silent newsletter

Core Insights - Tryg will conduct pre-close analyst calls starting on 17 December 2025, ahead of Q4 2025 results release on 22 January 2026 [1] Insurance Revenue Growth - Tryg's insurance revenue is distributed as follows: approximately 50% from Denmark, 30% from Sweden, and 20% from Norway, with Q4 2024 insurance revenue reported at DKK 9,734 million [2] Revenue Development - In Q3 2025, Tryg reported a growth of 4.0% in local currencies, adjusted for a one-off positive impact of approximately DKK 50 million from Q3 2024 [3] Claims Environment - The underlying claims ratio for Tryg was 69.3% in Q4 2024, with expectations for stable to slightly improving performance towards 2027 [4] Weather and Large Claims - Normalized weather claims for Q4 are expected to be DKK 240 million, which is 30% of the annual guidance of DKK 800 million [5] Interest Rates Development - The expected discount rate for Q4 is approximately 2.4%, consistent with Q3 2025 [6] Run-off Expectations - Tryg anticipates a long-term run-off expectation of approximately 2% towards 2027 [7] Investment Activities - Tryg's investment activities include a match portfolio of approximately DKK 45 billion and a free portfolio of approximately DKK 14 billion as of Q3 2025 [8] Other Income and Costs - Other income and costs are guided between DKK -350 million and DKK -370 million quarterly, primarily due to amortization of intangibles from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition [10] Solvency - On 11 November 2025, Tryg issued a new Restricted Tier 1 capital instrument of SEK 1 billion, positively impacting the solvency position by approximately SEK 300 million [11] Number of Shares - As of the end of Q3 2025, Tryg reported 602,428,000 outstanding shares, with no material changes expected [13] Outlook Statement - Tryg targets its highest ever insurance service result of DKK 8.0-8.4 billion by 2027, following an insurance service result of around DKK 7.2 billion in 2024 [14]