Should Nvidia Worry About AMD and Google Breathing Down Its Neck in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is currently the leader in the AI chip market, but competition from AMD and Google is intensifying, potentially challenging its dominance in the coming years [2][13]. AMD's Ambitious Plans - AMD aims to lead the $1 trillion AI and high-performance computing market with a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% in the next three to five years, and over 60% for its data center business [4][7]. - AMD has secured significant contracts, including a deal with OpenAI to use its Instinct MI450 GPUs in AI infrastructure, with deployment expected in the second half of 2026 [7]. - The company has also won contracts with the U.S. Department of Energy for its Lux and Discovery AI supercomputers [8]. Google's Advancements - Google's Cloud unit is making strides with its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which are being utilized by various AI leaders, including Anthropic, which is investing heavily in expanding its AI compute capacity using Google's TPUs [9][10]. - Meta Platforms is reportedly in discussions to use Google's TPUs in its data centers starting in 2027, indicating Google's growing influence in the AI chip market [12]. - Google's new Ironwood TPUs are four times more powerful than previous models, enhancing its competitive position [12]. Competitive Landscape - Both AMD and Google are gaining momentum in the AI chip market, prompting questions about Nvidia's future dominance [13]. - Despite the competition, Nvidia's management believes its market position is secure, as it remains a generation ahead in technology and is the only platform capable of running every AI model [14]. - The AI chip market is large enough to support multiple leaders, suggesting that while Nvidia may remain the king, AMD or Google could emerge as significant challengers [14].