国泰君安期货：白银盘面分析

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent upward trend in the Shanghai silver futures market, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish momentum as long as key support levels are maintained [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai silver main contract (2602) has shown a rebound in holdings after a period of reduction, with long positions being replenished, leading to a breakthrough of previous resistance levels [2][9]. - As of December 15, the closing price was around 14,793, which has shifted from a previous resistance level to a new support level, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement in the short term [2][9]. - The recent price movements indicate that the silver market is currently at historical highs, necessitating caution due to the increased likelihood of volatility at these elevated levels [14]. Group 2: Trading Volume Insights - The increase in holdings today has surpassed previous increments, but the volume is notably lower compared to recent spikes on November 28 and December 10, which may indicate a need for greater volume support for further price increases [3][12]. - The starting point for the increase in long positions today corresponds to the 14,800 mark, which may serve as a short-term support level [4][11]. - Continuous monitoring of trading volume during upward movements is essential, as a slowdown in volume could warrant caution regarding high-level silver positions [12].