2026，钢铁市场值得期待吗？

Group 1: Market Overview - The steel market in 2026 is expected to see supply-side restrictions due to policy measures, while demand from the real estate sector is stabilizing and manufacturing demand is increasing, leading to a slight upward shift in steel prices [2][11] Group 2: Policy Direction - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industrial upgrading and structural optimization, with a focus on green transformation, indicating that "reduction does not mean decline, but high-quality development" [3][12] - Key development directions include green (low-carbon smelting, ultra-low emissions), high-end (special steel R&D, quality improvement), and intelligent (digital factories, smart manufacturing) [3][12] Group 3: Raw Material Supply - Global iron ore production is projected to reach 2.65 billion tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%, driven by the commissioning of the West Simandou mine and expansions by major miners [4][12] - Domestic scrap steel supply is expected to reach approximately 320 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.28%, due to increased vehicle dismantling and relaxed import policies [4][12] Group 4: Supply Control - The "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" mandates precise control of production capacity and prohibits new capacity additions, leading to a slight decline in crude steel production and capacity in 2026 [5][16] Group 5: Demand Analysis - The real estate sector is expected to remain under pressure, with a projected 5% decline in steel usage, despite stable factors from affordable housing projects [6][17] - Infrastructure projects supported by special bonds are expected to drive steel demand, with usage projected at approximately 240-250 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%-2.0% [6][17] - Manufacturing demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors, with household appliances expected to maintain a 6% growth rate [6][17] Group 6: Price Forecast - Overall, the steel market is expected to experience a slight decrease in demand, with construction steel demand continuing to decline, while manufacturing steel demand increases [7][18] - Steel prices are predicted to see a slight upward shift due to reduced supply pressure and improved industry profitability, although the overall increase is expected to be limited [8][19]