石油ETF（561360）涨超1.1%，机构称原油供需格局或迎边际改善

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the oil market will transition from a clear surplus to marginal tightening by 2026, while remaining in a loose environment overall [1] - On the supply side, OPEC+ is shifting to a moderate production increase model, and the growth of U.S. shale oil marginal production is weak [1] - On the demand side, global oil demand is entering a peak plateau period, with slow but resilient growth expected at approximately 800,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the average oil price will fluctuate within the range of $55 to $65 per barrel in 2026 [1] - The downstream refining industry is experiencing accelerated optimization of its supply structure, with the government promoting the "anti-involution" initiative in the petrochemical sector since 2025, leading to the elimination of outdated capacity [1] - Domestic demand for refined oil is expected to peak, while chemical oil demand remains in a long-term growth channel, with a slow recovery in demand for petrochemical products becoming the main theme [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in the entire oil and gas industry chain, including exploration, development, transportation, and refining [1] - This index exhibits significant cyclical characteristics, with its performance closely related to fluctuations in international oil prices [1]