日本汽车工会警告：央行本周加息若致日元急升，将危及明年“春斗”涨薪

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese automotive industry is concerned that a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan could impact companies' ability to raise wages in the next fiscal year, particularly if it leads to significant yen appreciation, which may affect exporter confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Wage Negotiations and Economic Impact - The automotive union plans to seek a minimum monthly wage increase of 12,000 yen (approximately $77.50), which represents a stronger stance compared to last year's increase of 9,520 yen or 3.58%, the highest since 1996 [2][3]. - The union's focus will also be on narrowing the wage gap between large and small companies, as smaller firms saw an average wage increase of 8,688 yen, significantly lower than the 12,831 yen increase for larger firms [2][3]. - The union leader expressed that the upcoming wage negotiations could be influenced by the government's tax policies, particularly if large companies are excluded from tax incentives aimed at supporting wage increases [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Responses - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, with economists predicting a gradual tightening of policy every six months, potentially reaching a terminal rate of 1.25% [1][2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on automotive manufacturers is significant, with an estimated total impact of 2.5 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending in March, leading to a nearly 20% reduction in car prices in North America earlier this year [3]. - The Japanese government has introduced a substantial economic package, including approximately 980 billion yen aimed at promoting wage growth, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [3].