美联储进退维谷，危险时刻即将来临？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is trapped in a cycle where lowering interest rates could trigger hyperinflation, while maintaining high rates may lead to deflationary collapse. The most likely future scenario is a resurgence of inflation due to current debt levels and policy inertia [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Modern monetary policy aims to avoid deflation at all costs, viewing it as a taboo under Keynesian principles. However, deflation can be necessary to correct market distortions such as poor investments and debt addiction [1][4]. - The financial system has developed a pathological dependence on inflation due to the Federal Reserve's refusal to allow market corrections, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - Despite recent interest rate hikes, the fundamental issues remain unaddressed. In the 1980s, rates had to exceed 20% to combat stagflation, while current increases are merely superficial [2][6]. - The U.S. government incurs quarterly interest payments of $250 billion, indicating unsustainable debt levels and eroding purchasing power of the dollar [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - A significant risk is anticipated in 2026, as the Federal Reserve may lower rates to avoid recession, leading to a resurgence of suppressed inflation [7]. - The likelihood is high that the Federal Reserve will choose to continue monetary easing, which could result in uncontrollable inflation unless drastic rate hikes are implemented [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Strategies - The market is increasingly purchasing gold and silver as a hedge against anticipated inflation and the unsustainability of U.S. debt [6][8]. - The actual impact of tariffs on inflation is minimal, as companies can absorb costs, and reducing immigration to lower demand would require significant time and effort [8].