博时宏观观点：岁末年初，大盘风格或相对占优

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and announced a technical expansion of the balance sheet to prevent liquidity risks, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts [1][11] - The central economic work conference in China has set a tone for moderate expansion, focusing on high-quality development and detailed policies in fiscal, monetary, domestic demand, real estate, and industrial policies, including necessary fiscal deficits and interest rate cuts [1][11] Group 2: Market Performance and Strategies - In the bond market, yields have slightly decreased during the week of December 8-12, with concerns about the ability to absorb long-term bonds and expectations of rising prices affecting market sentiment [1][11] - A-shares are experiencing weak corporate earnings and negative liquidity and risk appetite, suggesting that a rebound may take time [2][12] - The Hong Kong stock market may face volatility due to the FOMC's easing expectations and weak employment conditions [2][12] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - Global oil demand remains weak, with ongoing supply releases and inventory accumulation putting pressure on prices [3][13] - Following the FOMC's actions, gold may experience short-term volatility but is expected to have a positive long-term development trend [3][13]