Macro News - The New York Fed President Williams stated that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve positions it well to address future challenges, believing that inflation will decline as the job market cools [1] - Williams noted that the Fed's recent rate cut shifted its policy stance from moderately restrictive to neutral, asserting that the impact of tariffs on prices is likely to be one-time [1] - Boston Fed President Collins expressed support for the Fed's recent rate cut decision due to changes in the inflation outlook [1] - Fed Governor Milan indicated that the Fed's past purchases of mortgage-backed securities have injected significant credit into the housing market, potentially exacerbating current housing affordability issues [1] - CNBC reported that some aides to President Trump oppose the candidacy of Powell's potential successor, Hasset, due to concerns over his close relationship with the President [1] - Milan commented that financial markets are more concerned with the actual outcomes of Fed policies rather than the motivations of officials or their relationships with the President [1] Housing Market - U.S. homebuilder confidence rose to its highest level in eight months at 39 in December, but construction activity remains constrained by rising building costs due to import tariffs [2] - The confidence index has been below the neutral level of 50 for 20 consecutive months, with economic uncertainty and potential homebuyers hesitating due to affordability issues also contributing to the slowdown [2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November showed a complex signal with an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 45,000, but the previous month's figure was significantly revised down to a loss of 105,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than expected and the highest since September 2021, indicating a cooling labor market despite apparent resilience [2] - The combination of upward revisions in job numbers, rising unemployment, and downward adjustments in historical data suggests a gradual cooling of the job market [2] - Weak labor market data typically supports gold and silver prices, as it reinforces market expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [2] - However, persistent inflation and economic resilience keep the Fed's stance cautious, leading to high uncertainty regarding a potential rate cut in January [2] - The market is likely to experience a high-level oscillation pattern, awaiting further economic data and clearer signals from the Fed regarding policy direction [2]
大有期货：政策预期与数据博弈 金银延续高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-17 08:03