库存端压力上升 预计PTA绝对价格运行跟随成本

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing stable capacity utilization rates, with expectations of inventory changes influenced by seasonal demand and maintenance schedules [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Capacity Utilization - As of December 16, PTA capacity utilization remains steady at 73.81%, while polyester capacity utilization is at 86.64% [1]. - The number of PTA futures warehouse receipts recorded on December 16 is 136,697, a decrease of 1,296 from the previous trading day; however, there has been an increase of 11,138 receipts over the past week, representing an 8.87% growth, and a total increase of 25,001 receipts over the past month, which is a 22.38% growth [1]. - Recent maintenance activities have not significantly altered production levels, with several PTA facilities undergoing planned repairs [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Dynamics - According to Yide Futures, PTA is expected to experience inventory reduction in December, with seasonal accumulation anticipated around the Spring Festival, followed by a potential continuous inventory reduction as demand recovers and spring maintenance occurs [2]. - Hualian Futures notes that the cost side is under pressure due to crude oil prices nearing five-year lows, impacting the polyester supply chain; however, PX profits remain strong, and operating rates are high, maintaining a tight market [3]. - PTA processing fees are expected to strengthen, with an anticipated increase in operating rates, although downstream polyester demand appears weak, leading to rising inventory pressures [3].