终端消费疲软 预计铅价在宽幅区间内偏弱运行

Group 1 - Anhui Fuyang issued an orange alert for heavy pollution and initiated a Level II emergency response, leading to a 50% reduction in output from several large-scale recycled lead smelting companies until the emergency response is lifted [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the average price of lead will be slightly above $2000 per ton in 2026 [1] - LME lead inventory remained at 252,500 tons as of December 16, with a weekly increase of 15,600 tons (6.56%) and a monthly increase of 30,000 tons (13.48%) [1] Group 2 - Minmetals Futures reported that lead ore inventory is stable, while primary lead operating rates are marginally declining; recycled lead operating rates are on the rise, and downstream battery manufacturers are seeing a slight increase in operating rates [3] - Domestic lead ingot social inventory remains relatively low, with upstream factory inventory declining marginally; however, the Shanghai lead month difference remains low [3] - The sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is waning, leading to low positions in Shanghai lead, with expectations for lead prices to operate weakly within a wide range in the short term [3] Group 3 - Southwest Futures noted that some primary lead enterprises continue maintenance due to raw material tightness and profit pressure, increasing the willingness of recycled lead companies to reduce production [4] - The lead-acid battery market is entering a traditional off-season, with weak terminal demand and limited replenishment for electric bicycles and automotive batteries [4] - A decrease of 3,200 tons in primary lead social inventory last week provides some support, while supply contraction and low inventory limit the downside, but weak demand and potential import pressure restrain the rebound [4]