特朗普“地缘政治牌”能否扰动国际油价？

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a "comprehensive and thorough" blockade on sanctioned oil tankers from Venezuela, designating the Venezuelan government as a foreign terrorist organization [3][4] - The blockade is expected to impact the supply of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels of oil per day, potentially increasing oil prices by $2 to $3 per barrel, although global oil supply remains ample with a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day [3][4] - The international oil prices saw fluctuations, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.9% to $59.46 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 1% to $55.82 per barrel following the announcement [3] Group 2 - Trump claimed progress in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, stating that they are "closer than ever" to a peace agreement, which raised concerns about additional oil supply entering the market amidst an already oversupplied situation [5][6] - The market reacted negatively to the news, with Brent crude prices dropping nearly 3% to $58.92 per barrel, marking the lowest level since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2021 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that any peace agreement could significantly impact the oil market, potentially allowing around 170 million barrels of Russian oil to return to the market, although the likelihood of a swift agreement is considered low [6][7] Group 3 - The oil market is currently dominated by oversupply concerns, with Brent crude experiencing its longest consecutive monthly decline in 11 years, dropping nearly $20 per barrel [7] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a global oil production increase of 3 million barrels per day by 2025, despite OPEC's control over production plans [7] - The IEA anticipates that by 2026, the average oversupply in international oil markets could reach 3.7 million barrels per day, exceeding levels seen during the pandemic [7]