非农数据被质疑注水！“解放日”关税让新增就业岗位坠入负值？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowdown, as indicated by a disappointing non-farm payroll report for November, which revealed an increase of only 64,000 jobs, falling short of the healthy growth needed [1][7]. Group 1: Employment Growth Stagnation - According to economist Justin Wolfers, since April, there has been "almost no job growth" in the U.S., especially after accounting for job losses in October and revisions to August and September data [2][8]. - Wolfers suggests that official employment data may overstate actual hiring, estimating that about 60,000 jobs per month could be inflated due to technical issues in the birth-death model [2][8]. - He notes that federal layoffs as part of the government's efficiency plan have contributed to job losses, with 157,000 jobs lost in October and an additional 5,000 in November [2][8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Recession Signals - The unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% in January to 4.6%, which, according to the Sahm Rule, may indicate an impending recession [2][8]. - There is uncertainty about whether the economy is already in a recession, but employment trends suggest a clear slowdown [3][9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Investor Kevin O'Leary states that the November employment report strengthens the case for a 25 basis point rate cut, while also highlighting the Fed's challenging position of balancing a weakening labor market with persistent inflation [4][10]. - Current inflation remains above the Fed's target at 3.1%, complicating any potential easing of monetary policy [4][11]. Group 4: Recruitment Recession - The U.S. economy is described as being in a "recruitment recession," with the number of unemployed increasing by 710,000 compared to the previous year [5][12]. - Factors contributing to this situation include the impact of tariffs, artificial intelligence, and cost-cutting measures, which are adversely affecting the American workforce [5][12].