装置降负 硫酸铵市场反弹

Core Viewpoint - The domestic ammonium sulfate market is experiencing high prices due to reduced operational capacity of production facilities, with expectations of entering a phase of price adjustment and fluctuation [2][5]. Production and Pricing - The production capacity of ammonium sulfate is expected to exceed 28 million tons this year, with the caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate accounting for over 40% of domestic supply [3]. - The price of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate increased from 1,096 yuan per ton on November 26 to 1,183 yuan on December 5, marking a 14.19% increase [4]. - The operating rate of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate production facilities dropped to 76.79% by December 5, a decrease of 8.72 percentage points from early November [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite rising prices, downstream manufacturers are cautious in their purchasing, leading to a temporary balance in supply and demand [5]. - The export volume of ammonium sulfate is projected to exceed 16 million tons in 2024, a 20% increase year-on-year, with Brazil being the largest export destination [5]. - The imposition of a temporary anti-dumping tax by Mexico on Chinese ammonium sulfate may negatively impact exports [5]. Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the ammonium sulfate market will enter a phase of fluctuation, influenced by weak international demand and ongoing supply constraints [6]. - The price of ammonium sulfate may experience a gradual decline after a period of high-level fluctuations due to insufficient demand support [6]. - The market is expected to remain in a stalemate, with stable demand from sectors like compound fertilizers and rare earths, while production facilities continue to face operational challenges [6].