【期货行情】库存高位运行 豆油中短线承压

Group 1: Overseas Market Insights - Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with a progress rate of 94.1% as of December 13, slightly below last year's 96.8% but significantly above the 5-year average of 90.6%. The expected soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is projected to reach a record high of 177 million tons, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [1][8] - In Argentina, soybean planting has accelerated, reaching 58.6% as of December 10, an increase of 13.9 percentage points from the previous week, surpassing the 5-year average of 54.9%. The USDA maintains a production estimate of 48.5 million tons for Argentine soybeans [2][9] - The U.S. soybean sales for the 2025/2026 season are significantly lagging behind last year, with cumulative sales of 20.72 million tons as of November 20, a 38.4% year-on-year decline [2][9] Group 2: Domestic Market Conditions - China's soybean imports from January to November 2025 have exceeded 100 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Despite high import levels, tightened customs inspection policies have extended the release cycle for imported soybeans, alleviating short-term supply pressures [3][10] - Domestic soybean oil inventory has risen to 1.13 million tons as of December 9, the highest level for this time of year in nearly seven years. However, the current price gap between soybean and palm oil remains inverted, and the demand for soybean oil is expected to remain high during the traditional consumption peak in Q4 [4][11] - The soybean crushing volume in major Chinese oil mills was 9.01 million tons in November, an increase of 830,000 tons year-on-year, with expectations of around 8.7 million tons for December. High crushing rates are leading to elevated soybean oil production, raising concerns about the rapid depletion of soybean oil inventories [3][10] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil production in November was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% month-on-month decline but still the highest for this period in six years. Exports fell sharply to 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% decrease, leading to a significant increase in palm oil inventory to 2.84 million tons, the highest since March 2019 [6][12] - The palm oil market is facing supply and demand imbalances, with expectations of further inventory increases in December, potentially exceeding 2.9 million tons, which may continue to suppress palm oil prices [6][12]