经济增长遇阻陷瓶颈：回望2025年的英国

Economic Performance - The UK economy's growth rate for 2025 is projected to be between 1.3% and 1.5%, with actual growth in Q1 at 0.7%, the highest among G7 countries [3][4][14] - However, the growth momentum has slowed down, with Q2 growth at 0.3% and Q3 further declining to 0.1% [4][16] - By the end of October, the UK economy showed no growth compared to May, indicating a stagnation in economic activity [4][17] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Bank of England's interest rate cuts have not met market expectations due to persistently high inflation rates [5][11] - Inflation rates rose unexpectedly, reaching 3.8% in July and slightly decreasing to 3.6% in October, driven by government policies and rising labor costs [7][18] - The increase in the minimum wage and the expansion of the sugar tax are expected to exert further upward pressure on inflation [7][18] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, the highest since January 2021, with a significant drop in job vacancies by 14.4% from October to November [6][17] - The decline in job openings is surprising, especially as retail typically hires more staff before Christmas, indicating potential long-term impacts from increased employer national insurance contributions [6][17] Stock Market Performance - The FTSE 100 index has seen an increase of over 18% in 2025, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2022 [8][19] - In contrast, the FTSE 250 index, which better reflects the domestic market, has only risen about 7%, indicating weaker performance among UK-focused companies [8][19] - Notable declines in stock prices have been observed in companies like WH Smith (down 44%), Greggs (down nearly 40%), and B&M (down over 53%), reflecting significant financial pressure on consumers [9][20]