Economic Overview - The current economic fundamentals are at a delicate turning point, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing an increase of 64,000, surpassing the market expectation of 51,000, but underlying signals indicate a cooling trend [1][3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, suggesting a loosening of the previously tight labor market, adding significant uncertainty to future monetary policy directions [1][3] Employment Structure Analysis - Recent revisions of employment data indicate that growth momentum has been overestimated, with August's figures revised down to -26,000 and September's to 108,000 [4] - The average hourly wage growth in November was only 0.1%, falling short of expectations, which may erode residents' real purchasing power amid inflation [4][5] Business Activity and PMI - The S&P Global Composite PMI index fell from 54.2 to 53, with the services PMI dropping to 52.9, reflecting a loss of momentum in business activity expansion [5] - Although all sectors remain above the 50 mark, the downward trajectory raises widespread concerns about the sustainability of growth [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with platinum emerging as a leading asset, surging 3.22% to $1,874.30, indicating its safe-haven asset characteristics and expectations of supply-demand gaps in industrial manufacturing [5] - Silver has slightly retreated to $63.795, but its substantial gains since August suggest that the current consolidation may represent a high-level bottoming process [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are hovering around $4,331.20, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as they digest conflicting information [6] - The rise in unemployment provides support for safe-haven assets, while the better-than-expected job growth suppresses bullish momentum [6] - The strong breakout of platinum and the high-level consolidation of gold create a market landscape driven by both safe-haven and industrial demand, with the metal sector's independent trends likely to be a focus in the near term [6]
NCE外汇:解读金属牛市 就业超预期但内需疲软
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-17 10:28