FPG财盛国际:比特币季末弱势或催生年初反弹

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's underperformance in the fourth quarter compared to the stock market may signal a potential rebound in January, providing a positive outlook for investors [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price stabilized around $87,500, with a 2% increase over the past 24 hours, while major altcoins like Ethereum ($2,947.87), Ripple ($1.9262), and Solana ($128.24) also showed similar upward trends, indicating a short-term recovery in the overall crypto market [1][3]. - After a significant pullback on Monday, crypto-related stocks rebounded, with Strategy MSTR rising approximately 3% and Coinbase COIN increasing about 1%, suggesting a partial recovery in market risk appetite [4]. Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter's underperformance of Bitcoin, lagging the S&P 500 by 26%, may lead to substantial asset reallocation opportunities as year-end approaches [2][4]. - Fund managers with established Bitcoin allocation targets may adjust their positions at year-end, potentially resulting in additional capital inflows during the last trading days of the year and early next year [2][4]. Market Sentiment - Despite recent price stability, market participants remain cautious about new risks, as indicated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivatives trading activity nearing annual lows, with approximately 124,000 BTC in open contracts for Bitcoin futures [5]. - The funding rates in the perpetual swap market are close to neutral, and open contract changes are minimal, reflecting a lack of clear directional judgment in the short-term market [5]. Overall Outlook - The weakness of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter does not imply long-term weakness but rather sets the stage for potential capital rebalancing and opportunities in the early market of the new year [3][5].