降息交易退潮 交易员押注欧洲宽松周期进入尾声

Group 1 - Traders are increasingly believing that major European central banks have nearly concluded their rate-cutting processes, with expectations that the European Central Bank, the Swedish Central Bank, and the Norwegian Central Bank will maintain rates in their upcoming meetings [1] - The market sentiment has shifted dramatically from earlier this year, where there was a widespread belief that significant rate cuts would occur before 2026, to the current expectation of rate stability or potential increases in some countries [1] - Fidelity International's fund manager Mike Riddell noted that many countries have already implemented substantial rate cuts, and the focus has shifted to potential rate hikes rather than further cuts [1] Group 2 - The anticipation of the European Central Bank tightening monetary policy again has led to a rise in the yield of German two-year government bonds by approximately 10 basis points this month [3] - In contrast, UK government bond yields have decreased in December, with expectations that the Bank of England will lower the benchmark borrowing cost by 25 basis points to 3.75% and plan further cuts by mid-2026 [3] - Following the release of lower-than-expected inflation data for November in the UK, traders have increased their bets on rate cuts, with the market currently predicting a reduction of 66 basis points by the end of 2026 [3]