Mizuho Cuts Evolus (EOLS) Estimates for Jeuveau/Evolysse on Waning Consumer Sentiment and Inflationary Pressure on Elective Aesthetics

Core Insights - Evolus Inc. is projected to double in value by 2026 despite recent challenges in consumer sentiment and inflationary pressures affecting demand for elective aesthetic procedures [1] - Mizuho has lowered Evolus's price target to $19 from $20 while maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's product estimates [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Evolus reported global net revenue of $69 million, a 13% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for its neurotoxin Jeuveau, which generated $63.2 million [2] - The new Hyaluronic Acid filler, Evolysse, contributed $5.7 million in revenue during the same quarter [2] - For the full year 2025, Evolus revised its total net revenue outlook to between $295 million and $305 million [2] Market Position and Challenges - Evolus holds a 14% market share in the US aesthetic neurotoxin market, supported by a customer loyalty program that has grown to over 1.3 million members, a 34% increase year-over-year [3] - The company added approximately 500 new purchasing accounts in Q3, indicating expansion in its professional customer base [3] - The US aesthetic market is facing challenges, particularly in consumer spending, with the HA filler market experiencing a double-digit decline, complicating Evolysse's market entry [3]