Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhang Yidong's team from Industrial Securities forecasts a bullish outlook for the market in 2026, emphasizing opportunities in technology and consumer sectors, driven by favorable monetary policies and economic recovery in China [1][4][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates more than current market expectations, potentially restarting asset purchases and implementing unconventional measures like yield curve control [2][10]. - The US dollar is projected to continue its weak trend in 2026, which will support a loose global liquidity environment [3][11]. - The Chinese economy is anticipated to see improvements in nominal GDP, with the RMB possibly appreciating back to the "6" level against the USD, driven by various supportive factors [4][25][88]. Investment Opportunities - Key investment areas include technology and non-essential consumer goods, which have historically attracted foreign investment. The first half of 2026 may see a market rally driven by short covering [5][92]. - The report predicts a continued bull market in Hong Kong stocks, with profitability and liquidity expected to drive market performance [6][37][107]. AI and Technology Sector - The AI technology wave is expected to persist, with a focus on internet, edge AI, and media sectors as new growth drivers. The human-robot industry is poised for significant capital-driven growth in 2026 [7][49][118]. - The report highlights the potential for AI to reshape advertising and e-commerce monetization strategies, as well as the emergence of high-margin PaaS layers in cloud competition [120][121]. New Consumption Trends - The new consumption landscape will focus on three main lines: high-end consumption linked to market liquidity and wealth effects, Z-generation consumption trends, and the transformation of traditional service consumption [63][125]. - Macau's gaming revenue is expected to recover significantly, and traditional service sectors may benefit from a mild economic recovery [64][128]. Strategic Assets - Gold and rare earths are identified as strategic assets that should be considered for reverse investment, with gold's long-term upward trend supported by concerns over the sustainability of US dollar credit [66][129]. - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand and China's dominant position in the supply chain, leading to high profit elasticity [70][132].
张忆东最新观点：港股牛市将继续，人民币可能重回“6字头”，并吸引外资回流中国股市
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-17 11:36