聚乙烯市场“跌跌不休” 困境在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The polyethylene market in December is experiencing a continuous decline due to a combination of increased supply, weakened demand, and reduced costs, leading to a persistent weak market trend [1] Supply Side - Domestic petrochemical main facilities maintained stable operations in December without significant maintenance, and some previously halted facilities resumed operations, contributing to increased production. However, inventory depletion is progressing slowly, keeping supply abundant [2] Demand Side - Demand in December has shown a significant seasonal decline, with colder temperatures causing adjustments in the agricultural film market. Overall industry demand is decreasing, with specific sectors like greenhouse film nearing completion and ground film demand remaining weak. As of December 13, operational rates for various downstream sectors are as follows: agricultural film at 36.0%, packaging film at 54.0%, thin film at 50.0%, hollow film at 51.0%, pipe materials at 30.0%, and injection molding at 50.5% [2] Cost Side - International crude oil prices continued to decline in December, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel, closing at $58.92, the lowest since early February 2021. WTI is also nearing the $55 per barrel mark. Year-to-date, WTI prices have dropped approximately 23%, marking the worst performance since 2018, while Brent has decreased about 21%, the worst since 2020. This decline in oil prices is expected to further reduce the cost of oil-based polyethylene, diminishing its support for polyethylene prices [3] Futures Market - The main futures contract for polyethylene has shown a downward trend since December, with the contract changing from 2601 to 2605 on December 5. The lowest price reached was 6475, followed by a slight rebound. However, after the market digested positive economic data from November, no new positive drivers emerged, leading the market to revert to fundamental operations. The short-term outlook for the main contract 2605 is expected to seek bottom support, with a trading range between 6450 and 6750 [3] Overall Market Outlook - In summary, the polyethylene market is unlikely to escape its current difficulties in the short term. Upstream producers and traders are focused on actively selling, and low-price transactions are unlikely to change the overall weak market sentiment. The market lacks core positive stimuli, and a continuation of the weak trend is expected as December concludes [4]