期权交易员认为延迟发布的通胀报告“无关痛痒”

Core Viewpoint - Investors are showing indifference towards the upcoming November inflation report, contrasting with previous anxieties, as the Federal Reserve's focus has shifted more towards labor market weakness than minor fluctuations in inflation rates [2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Option traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate within a range of ±0.7%, significantly lower than the average 1% volatility observed after the release of previous inflation reports this year [2]. - The November inflation report's timeliness is considered weaker than usual due to its delay and the impact of government shutdowns on data collection, leading to concerns about its reliability [2][3]. - Market consensus suggests that the inflation data will either be inconsequential or of questionable quality, thus not becoming a focal point for market attention [2][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The upcoming report is not expected to alter the Federal Reserve's decision at the January policy meeting, with a general belief that rates will remain unchanged as officials await more reliable economic data [3][8]. - The Federal Reserve has recently completed its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a cautious approach towards monetary policy amid ongoing labor market challenges [3][8]. - There is a notable focus on employment risks among Federal Reserve officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation pressures despite the prevailing emphasis on labor market conditions [3][8]. Group 3: Inflation Rate Predictions - Analysts expect the year-over-year inflation rate to remain around 3%, with potential surprises if the data deviates significantly from this expectation, either upwards to 3.5% or downwards to 2.7% or lower [4][9]. - The importance of the consumer price index report has diminished partly due to the impending term expiration of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with expectations that his successor may favor aggressive rate cuts regardless of economic data [4][9][10]. Group 4: Market Trends and Stock Performance - The S&P 500 index has experienced a decline for three consecutive days, closing just 1.5% below its previous all-time high, indicating a potential bullish sentiment among traders as they anticipate a rise to new highs [5][10].