SFX(SH:600370) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-12-17 12:23Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the convertible bond market, particularly the breach of par value by Sanfang Convertible Bond, reflects growing concerns over credit risk and indicates a structural adjustment within the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 16, Sanfang's stock price fell by 3.24%, leading to a 2.75% drop in the price of Sanfang Convertible Bond, which fell below the par value of 100 yuan, marking it as the first convertible bond to do so in recent times [1][2]. - The cumulative decline of Sanfang Convertible Bond exceeded 10% in December, despite a 1.44% rebound in the stock price on December 17, indicating persistent downward pressure on the bond [2]. - Other low-rated convertible bonds, such as Hongtu and Lanfan, have also seen significant declines, with Lanfan Convertible Bond dropping to 100.33 yuan and Hongtu Convertible Bond reaching a new low of 102.317 yuan [2]. Group 2: Credit Risk and Market Dynamics - The decline in low-rated convertible bonds is attributed to uncertainties regarding the underlying stocks' conversion capabilities and renewed concerns over credit risks, exacerbated by previous downward trends [2][3]. - The market consensus that convertible bonds serve as a safe investment has been challenged, with over a hundred convertible bonds breaching par value, prompting a reevaluation of credit risks and pricing logic [3][4]. - The overall credit rating of convertible bonds has weakened, with 130 bonds rated below AA- as of December 17, accounting for 31.18% of the total, compared to lower percentages in previous years [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent breaches of par value, experts believe that systemic risks remain controllable, and the impact is limited to individual bonds rather than a widespread credit crisis [4][6]. - The market is expected to see a concentration of credit risk and valuation reassessment for low-rated bonds, which may lead to increased pressure on issuers to improve bond terms and cash flow management [6][7]. - Investors are advised to monitor key thresholds for underlying stocks and be vigilant about potential delisting risks as annual reports are released, particularly for bonds nearing default or facing regulatory scrutiny [8].