【行业研究】求“铜”存异，负加工费时代的铜冶炼企业——有色金属行业深度研究

Core Insights - The global copper smelting industry, particularly Chinese enterprises, is facing severe challenges and strategic transformations as it enters a historic "negative processing fee" era, driven by structural imbalances between tight mineral supply and expanded smelting capacity [1][28] - Leading companies are adapting by enhancing resource self-sufficiency, exploring by-product value, optimizing technology for cost reduction, utilizing financial tools flexibly, and promoting industry consolidation to build new competitive advantages [1][28] - Long-term growth is anticipated as demand for materials from new energy and high-end manufacturing continues to rise, transitioning the copper smelting industry from a "strong cyclical attribute" to a "growth attribute" for high-quality development [1][28] Industry Background - Copper is one of the earliest metals recognized and used by humans, with extensive applications due to its excellent conductivity, thermal conductivity, ductility, and corrosion resistance [2][29] - The copper industry chain is divided into upstream mining, midstream copper smelting, and downstream copper processing, ultimately reaching the end consumer market [2][29] Current Industry Challenges - China, as the largest refined copper producer, has limited copper mineral resources and heavily relies on imported ores, a situation expected to persist in the short term [4][31] - In 2024, China's copper ore production is projected to be approximately 1.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, while refined copper production is expected to reach 13.64 million tons, an increase of over 5% [4][31] - The self-sufficiency rate for copper concentrate in China is only 13%, with imports of copper concentrate expected to rise to 28.11 million tons in 2024 [4][31] Processing Fee Dynamics - The processing fee (TC/RC) has entered a downward trend, with the first negative value recorded for imported copper concentrate in 2025, reaching a historical low of -40 USD per dry ton [4][32] - The decline in processing fees reflects the structural imbalance between tight raw material supply and expanded smelting capacity, severely impacting the bargaining power of Chinese smelting enterprises [5][32] Impact of Negative Processing Fees - The "negative processing fee" indicates that smelting companies not only fail to earn processing income but must pay fees to obtain processing rights for copper concentrate, fundamentally disrupting traditional profit models [6][35] - Various scenarios illustrate the impact of processing fee declines on profitability, with significant losses projected if processing fees remain negative [6][36] Profitability Analysis - From 2023 to 2025, the benchmark for long-term copper concentrate processing fees is expected to decline significantly, with 2024 and 2025 fees projected at 80 USD per dry ton and 21.25 USD per dry ton, respectively [7][37] - Despite ongoing resource shortages and cost pressures, leading smelting companies have not significantly reduced production, continuing capital expenditures in the industry [7][37] Company Performance Metrics - Key companies in the copper smelting sector, such as Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, and Jinchuan Group, show varying production capacities and financial metrics, with some facing negative cash flows [9][38] - For instance, Jiangxi Copper has a smelting capacity of 2.13 million tons and reported a cash flow deficit of 7.73 million [9][38] Resource Self-Sufficiency - The self-sufficiency of mineral resources is critical for copper smelting companies, directly affecting their production, costs, competitiveness, and sustainability [11][11] - Companies are attempting to transition from "processing services" to "resource production" to mitigate the impact of low self-sufficiency on profitability [11][11] By-Product Revenue - The production of sulfuric acid as a by-product in copper smelting has become increasingly profitable, with companies like Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous reporting high gross profit margins from sulfuric acid sales [13][15] - The recovery of precious metals from copper anode mud also presents significant economic value, with advanced extraction technologies in place [14][15] Technological Advancements - Continuous technological improvements in smelting processes and green transformations have positioned leading companies at the forefront of global standards, enhancing recovery rates and reducing costs [18][19] - Scale production helps lower fixed costs, with major companies maintaining low production costs despite the challenges posed by negative processing fees [19][19] Future Outlook - The copper smelting industry faces numerous survival challenges, but through strategic collaboration and healthy development, companies may maintain profitability even in a negative processing fee environment [24][27] - The global copper market is expected to shift from surplus to shortage by 2026, with prices anticipated to remain high due to supply concerns from major mining regions [27][28]