Blockade on Venezuela Oil Tankers & Mortgage Apps Moving Markets

Group 1: Market Overview - Futures are higher at the start of the day, recovering from previous pressure, with information technology showing strength [1][2] - Mortgage applications have decreased following a slight increase in mortgage rates from 6.33% to 6.38%, leading to a composite drop of 3.8%, purchases down 2.8%, and refinances down 3.6% [3][4] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil prices have risen by approximately 1.6%, influenced by a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, which are currently at about 590,000 barrels per day, down from a peak of 3 million barrels [5][6][7] - The Trump administration has escalated sanctions against Venezuela, blocking all sanctioned tankers from entering or leaving the country, indicating a significant shift in enforcement [5][6][7] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Christopher Waller, a Fed speaker, has expressed a preference for lower interest rates, suggesting they could be 50 to 100 basis points lower than current levels, citing reduced inflationary pressures [10][12] - John Williams and Raphael Bostic are also speaking today, with Williams previously shifting the probability of a Fed rate cut significantly, while Bostic holds a more hawkish stance, concerned about inflation and the Fed's credibility [11][12][13]