国际观察｜德国汽车业“巨象”转身难

Core Viewpoint - The closure of Volkswagen's Dresden plant marks the first shutdown of a domestic assembly facility in Germany in 88 years, highlighting the significant pressures faced by German automakers during their transition to electric vehicles and new technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Challenges - Volkswagen reported a net loss of €1.072 billion in Q3 2025, marking its first quarterly loss in five years, with Porsche's operating profit dropping approximately 99% in the same period [2][4]. - The company has lowered its performance expectations multiple times this year, projecting an operating profit margin of only 2% to 3% for 2025, with near-zero net cash flow from automotive operations [2][4]. - The German automotive industry has seen a net reduction of about 51,500 jobs in the past 12 months, representing nearly 7% of total jobs, making it the most affected industrial sector in Germany [4]. Group 2: Industry Transformation and Strategic Shifts - The closure of the Dresden plant breaks the long-standing industry norm of not touching domestic production lines, reflecting the high cost pressures and challenges in the electrification transition faced by the German automotive sector [3][4]. - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, with traditional suppliers facing bankruptcy and layoffs due to slow transitions, while manufacturers struggle to gain a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving technology landscape [4][5]. - A recent analysis by Ernst & Young indicated that the combined EBIT of Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz is expected to fall to approximately €1.7 billion by Q3 2025, a 76% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level since 2009 [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Responses - In response to internal and external pressures, German automakers are exploring various paths for self-rescue, including lobbying the EU to ease aggressive transition mandates [5][6]. - The European Commission proposed to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of combustion engine vehicles, suggesting a shift from a "zero-emission" target to a "90% reduction" goal, which has been welcomed by German officials and automakers [5][6]. - Some German automakers are considering relocating production capacity to the U.S. to avoid high tariffs, which could have long-term implications for the domestic industrial base [6].