白银涨疯了，后市如何？

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, with both spot and futures prices reaching historical highs, driven by macroeconomic factors, industrial demand, and trading dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 17, silver prices in the international market reached $65.769 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 3.22%, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 130% [1]. - COMEX silver futures also showed strong performance, trading at $66.045 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 120% [1][2]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 15,512 yuan per kilogram, up 5.05%, with an intraday high of 15,555 yuan per kilogram [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The macroeconomic environment, particularly expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut by 2025, has significantly increased the attractiveness of silver as a non-yielding asset [3]. - Industrial demand for silver has transformed it from a traditional safe-haven asset to a critical industrial metal, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [3]. - A low inventory level has created a fragile trading structure, leading to significant delivery pressure in the futures market and a risk of short squeezes [3]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - There has been a notable increase in investment demand for silver, particularly through ETFs, as institutions and high-net-worth individuals accumulate physical silver, further tightening available inventory [4]. - The silver market has shown signs of a futures backwardation structure, indicating extreme tightness in the spot market and high premiums for immediate delivery [4]. - Silver has outperformed gold recently, attributed to a combination of price correction potential in gold and tight silver inventories, alongside geopolitical uncertainties supporting higher silver prices [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility risks exist, the long-term upward trend for silver remains intact due to ongoing macroeconomic support and robust industrial demand [5][6]. - The anticipated continuation of the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy and uncertainties surrounding U.S. midterm elections are expected to sustain demand for precious metals [6]. - The ongoing supply-demand gap in silver is projected to widen by 2026, limiting the potential for significant price declines [5][6].