The high cost of the AI build-out, plus volatility in the AI trade

Group 1: OpenAI and Amazon Investment - OpenAI is reportedly in talks with Amazon to raise over $10 billion, which would value OpenAI at more than $500 billion and involve the use of Amazon's chips [3][37] - The investment aims to diversify Amazon's AI partnerships, especially as competitors like Anthropic pivot towards Google TPU for their workloads [7][30] Group 2: Oracle and Data Center Challenges - Oracle's Michigan data center project is facing funding challenges after talks with Blue Owl stalled, raising concerns about Oracle's role in the AI buildout [4][37] - Analysts suggest that Oracle's reliance on OpenAI for revenue growth could limit its ability to fund its data center expansion if OpenAI fails to meet its revenue targets [6][30] Group 3: Micron's Earnings and AI Impact - Micron is expected to report a 16% revenue increase, heavily tied to the demand for high bandwidth memory chips driven by AI applications [9][19] - Memory chip prices have surged, with DRAM prices increasing by 70% in the current quarter and projected to rise another 40% next quarter, impacting smartphone manufacturing costs [21][22] Group 4: Smartphone Market Forecast - The global smartphone market is projected to see a 2.1% decline in shipments next year, a significant shift from the 3% growth experienced this year, largely due to rising component costs and inflation [24][27] - Companies may face tough decisions on whether to absorb increased costs or pass them onto consumers, potentially leading to postponed upgrades [23][24] Group 5: Market Sentiment and AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is experiencing volatility, with concerns about capital expenditures and funding for projects like those involving Oracle and OpenAI [38][39] - The market is seeing a rotation in AI-related stocks, with a focus on diversification as companies navigate the complexities of the AI landscape [41][42]