私募科技巨头或在IPO中丧失稀缺性溢价

Core Viewpoint - The scarcity of assets, such as precious metals and private tech companies, significantly contributes to their value, leading investors to pay high valuations for companies like SpaceX and OpenAI [2][8]. Investment Landscape - Wealth managers and fund executives have profited by connecting clients with hot private investment projects, resulting in substantial gains for some clients so far [2][8]. - Many of the companies receiving investments are in highly competitive industries and are burning cash, making future profitability uncertain [2][8]. IPO Considerations - There is speculation that SpaceX and Anthropic may launch IPOs in 2026, followed by OpenAI, which could diminish their current scarcity and lead to a drop in valuations [2][8]. - Historical examples indicate that once assets become widely available, their valuations may decline, as seen in the cryptocurrency and real estate markets [2][9]. Performance of Assets - The performance of assets like cryptocurrencies and SPACs has been disappointing, serving as a warning for potential investors considering buying into private tech giants at current valuations [3][9]. - The average market value of companies that went public via SPACs from 2021 to 2024 has decreased by two-thirds, highlighting the risks associated with such investments [10]. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - Blackstone's REIT, which once reached a size of $70 billion, faced challenges as rising interest rates and declining commercial real estate prices led to investor redemption attempts being restricted [5][11]. - Many investors entered the market at unfavorable times, missing out on gains and instead facing losses as the market turned [12]. Market Trends - The majority of newly listed stocks this year have not provided significant returns to public market investors, with many experiencing substantial declines post-IPO [12]. - The high valuations of current private companies suggest that individual investors may struggle to achieve even short-term gains after their IPOs, as the focus shifts from scarcity to scrutiny of profitability and growth potential [12].