【环球财经】AMRO：全球变局下东盟+3需重塑财政韧性 应对老龄化与债务挑战

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in building economic resilience in the ASEAN+3 region amid global economic slowdown, rising borrowing costs, and demographic changes [1] Group 1: Fiscal Sustainability and U.S. Debt - The article highlights concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, which currently stands at $38 trillion, and notes a decline in demand for long-term bonds, particularly from ASEAN+3 members [2] - It points out that despite the privilege of issuing the global reserve currency, the U.S. has not met the standards for sustainable public debt, leading to skepticism in the market regarding its fiscal trajectory [2] Group 2: Role of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - The article argues that evaluating SOEs solely based on financial metrics overlooks their broader social roles, as they provide essential services and help reduce inequality [3] - It stresses that fiscal policy should go beyond mere budget balance goals and serve as a tool for building a sustainable and inclusive economy, with smart investments in infrastructure and human capital [3] Group 3: Aging Population and Economic Opportunities - The article identifies aging populations as a key fiscal challenge for ASEAN+3 countries, citing that China's life expectancy has increased from 71.4 years in 2000 to 78.6 years in 2023, putting pressure on healthcare and pension systems [4] - It also references an IMF report suggesting that the "silver economy" presents new opportunities, advocating for government investment in lifelong learning and care facilities to alleviate fiscal pressures [4] Group 4: Diversification of Debt Sustainability Framework - The article mentions that while the IMF's framework for debt sustainability is widely accepted, China has developed its own approach for "Belt and Road" loans, prioritizing financing sustainability and debt transparency [5] - It concludes that fiscal policy should not only focus on balancing accounts but also act as a strategic lever for shaping equitable outcomes and prosperous societies, aligning fiscal frameworks with social goals [5]