人民币升值预期走强 海外资金配置中国资产兴趣浓厚

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked increased interest from overseas investors in Chinese assets, driven by a combination of seasonal demand for currency settlement and a favorable economic outlook for China [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rates - On December 17, the onshore RMB reached a new high of 7.0409 against the US dollar, marking a 14-month peak and continuing a trend of appreciation over three consecutive trading days [1]. - The People's Bank of China set the RMB central parity rate at 7.0573 against the US dollar, with the year-to-date increase in the central parity exceeding 1000 basis points [1]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's appreciation may continue, with expectations of seasonal currency settlement demand potentially pushing the exchange rate further [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's trade surplus has seen significant growth, with November's surplus increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative surplus for the first 11 months surpassing $1 trillion for the first time in history [1]. - The strong export performance is a key factor supporting the Chinese economy and influencing the RMB's strength [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - There is a growing expectation of a moderate appreciation of the RMB by year-end and into next year, with a shift towards "two-way fluctuations" rather than unilateral appreciation [2]. - Overseas interest in Chinese markets has risen, as major financial institutions have upgraded their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy [2]. - The significant decline of the US dollar index, which has dropped over 9% this year, has led to a relative "catch-up" demand for the RMB, which has appreciated less than 4% [2]. Group 4: Commodity Markets - The recent strength of the RMB has coincided with rising prices in precious metals, with silver and platinum seeing substantial year-to-date gains of over 125% and 113%, respectively [3]. - The trend of de-dollarization is ongoing, with increasing pressure on the US dollar as investors seek non-dollar assets and commodities [3]. Group 5: Global Economic Dynamics - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is creating pressures on the dollar, with expectations of a potential interest rate hike in Japan [4]. - The anticipated changes in interest rates may impact global capital markets, particularly affecting the USD and JPY exchange rates [4].