Core Insights - The investment strategy for 2026 will shift from valuation-driven to a dual focus on earnings and valuation, emphasizing technology autonomy, domestic demand recovery, and high-dividend assets [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The low interest rate environment is prompting a reassessment of asset values, with a focus on stable returns while managing risks [2] - The "fixed income +" products are expected to experience a third round of expansion, with the scale surpassing 2 trillion yuan by mid-2025, driven by demand for alternatives following regulatory changes and a recovering equity market [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to transition from external demand-driven growth to a balance of internal and external demand, with a potential earnings growth turning point in 2026 [2] - After three years of decline, A-share earnings showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with expectations for further growth in 2027 [2] Group 3: Investment Directions - Four main domestic investment themes have been identified: 1. Semiconductor and military industries, with significant demand expected in 2026 [3] 2. "Anti-involution" sectors like chemicals and new energy, benefiting from policy-driven supply-demand improvements [3] 3. Service sector consumption, with increased policy support expected to boost recovery in travel and dining [3] 4. Real estate industry chain, projected to rebound in the second half of 2026 after a prolonged downturn [3] Group 4: International Investment Strategy - The "barbell strategy" emphasizes investments in U.S. tech stocks, which are pivotal in the AI revolution, and Hong Kong stocks, known for their high dividend yields, which have outperformed tech indices over the past decade [3] Group 5: Technology Sector Opportunities - The technology sector is expected to see sustained momentum, driven by global AI advancements and China's technological rise, with a balanced focus on domestic and international capabilities [4] - Key developments in AI, such as the emergence of DeepSeek and advancements in reusable rockets, are seen as critical milestones for the industry [4] Group 6: AI Industry Growth - The AI industry is still in its early growth phase, with no substantial bubble present, as current valuations are reasonable compared to historical tech bubbles [5][6] - The focus on AI infrastructure is strong, with significant opportunities anticipated in cloud applications, edge devices, and autonomous technologies [6] Group 7: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies include a focus on established "white horse" stocks while diversifying into promising second-tier leaders and hidden champions [7] - Attention is drawn to the "sweet spot" of the industry cycle, with a focus on high-growth potential in the application phase of AI technologies [7]
长城基金2026年度投资策略会： 市场转向盈利与估值双轮驱动 科技与价值共筑投资新锚
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-17 19:18