SFX(SH:600370) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-17 19:31Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in convertible bonds, particularly those falling below par value, reflects a reassessment of credit risk and pricing logic in the market, driven by continuous declines in underlying stock prices and concerns over issuer creditworthiness [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The convertible bond market has seen over a hundred bonds drop below par value, indicating a shift in market consensus regarding credit risk [2] - Specific bonds like Sanfang Convertible Bond have recently fallen below par, with a cumulative decline exceeding 10% in December [1] - The trading volume of convertible bonds has significantly decreased, with some trading days in December seeing volumes below 50 billion yuan, compared to over 100 billion yuan in August [4] Group 2: Credit Risk and Valuation - The decline in convertible bond prices is primarily driven by the continuous drop in underlying stock prices, alongside year-end liquidity constraints and fluctuations in risk-free interest rates [2][3] - A significant portion of convertible bonds, particularly those rated below AA-, has increased, with 130 bonds representing 31.18% of the total as of December 17, compared to lower percentages in previous years [3] - The market is witnessing a concentration of credit risk and valuation reassessment, particularly for low-rated and near-default bonds, which may lead to a more pronounced credit tiering and valuation re-evaluation [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent declines, experts believe that systemic risks in the market remain controllable, and the current situation reflects individual risk pricing rather than a widespread credit crisis [3] - The frequency of credit events in the convertible bond market is expected to decrease following the concentration of risks in 2024, with some bonds successfully converting or triggering strong redemptions [4]