Bulls beware — BofA Fund Manager Survey flashing contrarian sell signal

Core Insights - The latest Global Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America indicates that professional investor sentiment is at its highest level in years, with cash levels dropping to 3.3%, the lowest in the survey's history, signaling a strong inclination towards risk-taking [2][3] Investor Sentiment - A net 42% of fund managers are overweight in equities, the highest since December 2024, while commodities show a net 18% overweight, the strongest since September 2022, reflecting a broader shift into these asset classes [3] - Investor optimism is linked to expectations of a resilient global economy, with 57% of respondents forecasting a soft landing by 2026 and only 3% expecting a hard landing, the lowest since mid-2021 [4] Economic Conditions - Global growth and profit expectations are at their highest since August 2021, and liquidity conditions are rated as the third-best in the past 17 years, indicating a favorable environment for investment [4] Implications for Crypto - The extreme positive sentiment in traditional markets may suggest a potential pullback, which could lead to deeper losses for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, given their correlation with the Nasdaq [5] - Conversely, a broad stock decline could accelerate the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting plans, potentially providing the liquidity needed to reignite the crypto bull market [6]