日本央行料将加息至三十年高位 前瞻指引将成市场焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years, reflecting increased confidence in achieving stable inflation targets [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Increase - The overnight borrowing rate is anticipated to be increased by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the first rate hike since January of this year [1][5]. - This decision is expected to receive unanimous support from the board, which would be the first time Governor Kazuo Ueda achieves full backing on a rate hike during his tenure [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows solid wage growth momentum in Japan, and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy is less severe than previously feared [4][5]. - The interest rate swap market indicates a 95% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, nearly doubling from early last month [5]. Group 3: Future Rate Path and Communication - Market focus is shifting to how the Bank of Japan will outline its future interest rate path, with some officials believing that even a rate of 1% would still be considered low [4][6]. - The central bank may emphasize that the financial environment remains accommodative, suggesting further rate hike potential even after the increase to 0.75% [5][6]. - Balancing hawkish and dovish signals is seen as a core challenge for Governor Ueda, especially in light of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's push for economic stimulus [6].