Fed increasingly divided on rate cuts in 2026, plus Big Banks' lofty forecasts for the coming year

Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing weakness, particularly in the tech sector, with the NASDAQ down 1.43% and the S&P 500 down almost 1% [1] - The Dow is down about 0.25%, while small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, are also showing similar trends [1] - The US dollar index is up about 0.25%, indicating a mixed performance across different sectors [1] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 is projected at 1.5%, with the labor market being a significant factor influencing this estimate [2] - Weak labor demand is noted, with online job postings and associated salaries at four-and-a-half-year lows, suggesting a potential decline in wages and consumption [2] - The consumer outlook is cautious, with expectations of pullbacks in spending due to wage pressures, particularly among middle and lower-income households [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller anticipates further interest rate cuts next year, suggesting a base case of four cuts, which is more than current market pricing [4][5] - Waller acknowledges that inflation remains above the Fed's target but expects it to decrease in the coming months as tariffs impact the economy [5] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostik expresses concerns about sticky inflation and does not foresee rate cuts at this time, indicating a divergence in Fed perspectives [7][8] Investment Strategies - There is a focus on identifying investment opportunities beyond mainstream AI winners, particularly in sectors utilizing AI for operational improvements, such as credit card companies and big box retailers [2] - The sentiment around tech valuations is mixed, with unprofitable tech stocks still outperforming profitable ones, but this trend is not expected to continue [2] - International equities are viewed cautiously, with a preference for selective investments in regions like Japan while being underweight in China due to trade tensions [2] Company-Specific Developments - GE Vernova is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, with significant growth in orders for natural gas turbines and a bullish outlook for the electrification and power sectors [14][16] - Procter & Gamble is receiving attention for its potential to innovate and drive growth, despite facing a promotional environment that has led to market share losses [3] - Gap Inc. is undergoing a turnaround, with upgrades from analysts indicating improving results and margin expectations, although challenges remain with certain brands [3] IPO Market - The Medline IPO is noted as a significant event, with expectations for a strong start to the next year as companies push back IPO plans due to the recent government shutdown [60][62]