Prediction markets act as leading indicators for macro risk, new report says

Prediction markets have become a leading indicator for pivotal economic data — and traders are monitoring them to get ahead in the market. Crypto market maker Keyrock made that argument in a December 16 report that explored the impact of fast-growing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The report looked at Kalshi’s ‘Inflation in 2025’ market, which lets users place bets on where the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index will fall. “Rather than a lagging statistical update, Kalshi repres ...