MMA产业链集体进入低谷

Core Viewpoint - The MMA industry chain is experiencing a weak operation entering the fourth quarter, with prices at historical lows, particularly in East China and Shandong, where prices have fallen below 9,000 yuan per ton, marking a five-year low. The market adjustment is expected to continue due to a supply-demand imbalance and weak cost support [1]. Price Trends - The traditional "Silver October" peak season did not provide the expected boost to the MMA industry chain, instead marking the beginning of a downward trend across all segments, with prices hitting annual lows. Although there were minor rebounds in MMA prices, the overall supply-demand situation remains loose, limiting upward momentum [2]. - The main raw material, acetone, also showed weak performance, with prices in East China dropping to around 4,100 yuan, closing the month with a more than 6% decline. MMA and PMMA markets continued to decline in December, reaching new annual lows, making them the two largest declining products in the industry chain [2]. Profitability Pressure - The ongoing price decline is not only affecting product prices but also compressing profit margins across the industry chain. The profitability of the phenol-acetone industry has worsened, with losses expanding from 200-300 yuan in October and November to 800-900 yuan by mid-December due to rising raw material costs and poor cost transmission [3]. - In the MMA segment, the profitability varies significantly, with the acetone cyanohydrin method (ACH) not facing losses but experiencing a more than 90% decline in theoretical profits. The newer carbon four method has seen profits drop to around 2,000 yuan in losses, although the situation has slightly improved [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The mismatch in the expansion pace of upstream and downstream capacities, coupled with weak terminal demand, has weakened the synergistic effects within the industry chain. This year has seen significant capacity additions for key raw materials and MMA itself, with new large-scale phenol-acetone facilities coming online, leading to a more relaxed acetone market [4]. - On the demand side, growth remains weak, particularly in PMMA, which is the largest consumer of MMA. Key application areas such as construction panels and advertising light boxes are facing demand pressures, while stable demand in automotive and home appliance sectors does not significantly boost PMMA consumption [4].