Oil is Tanking – What to Do Now

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have reached their lowest levels in nearly five years, with Brent Crude falling below $60 per barrel and WTI dropping into the mid-$50s, primarily due to overwhelming supply despite robust demand [1][2][3]. Oil Market Dynamics - Over the past six months, Brent and WTI prices have decreased by 23% and 25%, respectively, driven by record U.S. crude output, sustained production from OPEC+ members, and softer demand signals, particularly from China's slowing economy [2][3]. - JPMorgan forecasts Brent to fall to $58 and WTI to $54 next year, with a continued downward trend expected through 2027, indicating a prolonged period of depressed prices [4]. Electricity Demand and AI - In 2023, U.S. data centers consumed approximately 176 terawatt-hours of electricity, accounting for about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity use, with projections suggesting this could double or triple by the end of the decade due to AI workloads [5]. - The majority of U.S. electricity is generated from natural gas, renewables, nuclear power, and coal, with oil playing a minor role in grid power generation, indicating a lack of correlation between data center power consumption and crude oil demand [6][7]. Investment Implications - Investors should recognize the distinct markets for electricity and oil, as the demand for electricity driven by AI does not translate to increased oil demand [8]. - Investment opportunities in the electricity sector include utilities and independent power producers, nuclear and uranium investments, and energy storage solutions [8][9][10]. - The financial risks associated with AI expansion are growing, with major tech companies extending depreciation schedules and utilizing creative financing structures to mask long-term liabilities [21][22][23][25].