Jefferies' Sheila Kahyaoglu talks 2026 defense playbook

Core Insights - The aerospace and defense sector is facing challenges due to potential executive orders that may impose penalties on defense primes, making profitability difficult given current operating margins of 10% and cash margins of 5% [2][4] - The balance between research and development (R&D) investment and shareholder returns is highlighted, with defense primes investing approximately $40 billion in R&D and capital expenditures while returning $50 billion through dividends and buybacks, indicating a 1.3% investment to return ratio [4][5] - The commercial aerospace market is projected to grow, with aircraft needs increasing by 3% and aftermarket services by 8-10%, making companies like GE and RTX attractive investments [7][8] Investment Dynamics - The lack of clarity in defense budgets complicates investment cycles for defense primes, which do not have 5-year budgets, impacting their ability to generate returns [8][9] - International growth is seen as a significant upside, with NATO spending potentially increasing from 2% to 3.5%, translating to $280 billion in investments for defense primes, benefiting both U.S. and European contractors [10][11] - RTX has a notable exposure to European spending, with 44% of its defense backlog linked to this market, indicating strong international growth potential [11] Geopolitical Influence - The current geopolitical climate, including U.S. defense budgets growing by 3-5%, is influencing the defense sector, with international sales typically yielding higher margins for American defense primes [10][13] - The Trump administration's support for both large and small contractors has led to increased funding and innovation within the defense sector, resulting in a rise in defense tech IPOs [14][15] - The global threat environment is broadening the focus for defense contractors beyond traditional regions, emphasizing the need for a diverse playbook to address various geopolitical challenges [15]