“存款搬家”入市潜力被低估了？机构称万亿级增量资金可期

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "deposit migration" is gaining attention as deposit rates decline and equity markets heat up, with potential capital inflow into the market estimated to be in the trillions [1][12]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Potential - The potential scale of "deposit migration" into the capital market is estimated to be at least in the trillion level, with over 60 trillion yuan of deposits maturing after 2024 [12]. - By 2025, approximately 105 trillion yuan of deposits will mature, with an additional 66 trillion yuan maturing in 2026 and beyond [14]. - The re-pricing of deposits is expected to lead to significant downward adjustments in interest rates, further encouraging the migration of deposits [14]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Migration - The current trend shows a slowdown in the pace of "deposit migration," but the expectation remains high due to the large volume of high-interest deposits maturing [13]. - The average savings rate has reached a 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant amount of excess savings that could flow into non-deposit investments [16]. - The shift in asset allocation behavior among residents, particularly due to changes in the real estate market, has heightened sensitivity to asset prices [17]. Group 3: Financial Products and Market Impact - Financial products, particularly those with equity components, are becoming more attractive as traditional deposit rates decline, leading to a potential increase in investment in equities [19]. - The banking sector is expected to see a shift towards "solid return" products, with a projected increase in equity asset allocation in financial products, potentially bringing nearly 1 trillion yuan into the capital market by 2026 [21]. - The growth of "solid + equity" financial products is anticipated to reach a year-on-year increase of 20%, indicating a shift in investor preferences [20].