法统计机构预测2025年全年经济增速为0.9%

Economic Growth Outlook - France's GDP growth is projected to be 0.9% for the year 2025, slightly lower than 1.1% in 2024, with a potential recovery to 1.0% by mid-2026 [1] - In Q3, France's GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, which is considered a strong performance within the Eurozone [1] Sector Performance - The aerospace sector's supply constraints have eased, contributing to a 1.3% increase in industrial production quarter-on-quarter [1] - Manufacturing exports rose by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, indicating robust performance in this sector [1] - Corporate investment increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, while public consumption remained resilient [1] Consumer Behavior - Household consumption has stagnated due to weak expectations for the future, which remains a significant drag on economic growth [1] - The unemployment rate reached 7.7% of the labor force, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, the highest level since Q3 2021 [1] Inflation and Purchasing Power - In November, France's inflation rate rose by 0.9% year-on-year, making it one of the countries with the lowest inflation rates in the Eurozone [1] - Despite upcoming increases in pensions and minimum wages in January, the growth in household purchasing power is expected to lag behind economic activity levels [1] - The savings rate is projected to decline from a peak of 18.7% a year ago to 18.0% by mid-2026 [1] External and Internal Uncertainties - There are multiple uncertainties to monitor, including the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policies and the potential for lower international oil prices to support European recovery [2] - France's fiscal policy direction remains unclear, while signs of recovery in corporate investment are evident, but consumer spending recovery is still uncertain [2]