重磅数据！美国11月CPI来袭，如何扰动美联储降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising dissatisfaction among the American public regarding high inflation and increasing living costs, with the upcoming November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report expected to provide insights into future economic policies for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve [1]. Data Outlook - The CPI saw a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in April, the lowest in nearly four years, but has since risen to 3% by September due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are at their highest levels in decades [2]. - The upcoming CPI report is anticipated to show a slight increase in overall CPI from 3.0% to 3.1%, while core CPI is expected to remain stable at 3% [3]. - Service prices have increased by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the smallest rise since the pandemic, indicating a potential slowdown in inflation if this trend continues [3]. Federal Reserve Discrepancies - Recent surveys indicate that U.S. economic growth is facing obstacles, with rising prices due to tariffs suppressing consumer demand and leading to tighter hiring policies by businesses [4]. - Retail sales showed no growth in October, particularly affecting low-income households, while high-income households continue to drive non-essential spending, highlighting a widening economic gap [4]. - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times, now at a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are unlikely until labor market and inflation trends are clearer [4]. Internal Divisions within the Federal Reserve - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials reveal internal divisions regarding the outlook for inflation and interest rates [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic warned against complacency regarding inflation, suggesting that the economy may see upward pressure from tax reforms and a rebound from the government shutdown [6]. - In contrast, Fed officials Miran and Waller maintain a dovish stance, believing inflation will ease in the coming months, with Waller suggesting the possibility of significant rate cuts [6]. Future Rate Expectations - The updated Federal Reserve dot plot indicates only one potential rate cut this year, while futures markets suggest an 80% probability of a cut by June [7]. - The complexity of future rate cuts will depend on employment and inflation performance, with the labor market showing signs of stability [7]. - The impact of a new Federal Reserve chair remains uncertain, with potential rate cuts likely only in response to rising recession fears, which could negatively affect the Republican midterm election outlook [7].