能源广角煤炭消费负增长不是“终场哨”

Core Insights - China's coal consumption has shown a decline for the first time since 2017, indicating a potential shift in the energy landscape, with expectations for stable coal supply and possible demand growth in the coming year [2][4] Group 1: Coal Consumption Trends - The primary reason for the decline in coal consumption is the reduction in coal used for thermal power generation, as renewable energy sources like wind and solar are rapidly increasing, with an expected addition of approximately 370 million kilowatts of new capacity this year [2] - The relationship between coal consumption growth and macroeconomic growth has weakened, as high-energy-consuming industries are focusing on quality improvement and energy efficiency rather than mere expansion [2][3] Group 2: Future Projections - Short-term projections indicate that coal demand may still have resilience, with expectations for some growth next year, particularly in the coal chemical industry, which is anticipated to maintain high capacity utilization [4] - Long-term forecasts suggest that coal consumption will peak around 2027, transitioning from a primary energy source to a backup energy source, with a gradual reduction in coal use in sectors like steel and construction [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Insights - The focus of energy security is shifting from ensuring large coal supplies to building a multi-source complementary power system, where coal will serve as a reliable regulator and backup power source [5] - Coal's role is evolving from a fuel to an important industrial raw material, particularly in the chemical sector, where it can produce high-end materials and special fuels, thus supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy [5] - A balanced approach to energy transition is necessary, respecting China's resource endowment and ensuring that coal capacity remains sufficient until renewable energy can fully support the system [5]