英国央行降息在即？通胀与就业双降温强化宽松预期

Group 1 - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75% during its meeting on December 19, 2023, due to significant inflation slowdown and a weakening labor market [1][2] - The latest data shows that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year in November, down from 3.6% in October, marking the lowest level in eight months and below economists' expectations of 3.5% [1] - The core CPI also decreased to 3.2% year-on-year, with service prices rising by 4.4%, slightly below the Bank of England's previous forecast of 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5.1%, the highest since early 2021, with youth unemployment nearing 550,000, the highest since 2015 [1] - Average wage growth in the private sector fell below 4% for the first time since 2020, indicating economic pressure [1] - The UK economy contracted for the second consecutive month in October, with service sector employment and new orders also declining, reflecting uncertainty in fiscal policy that has dampened investment willingness [1][2] Group 3 - The MPC is currently divided with four hawks and four doves, and the decision to cut rates is expected to pass with a narrow majority of 5 to 4 [2] - Analysts suggest that the current interest rate is close to the so-called neutral rate range of approximately 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating limited room for further easing [2] - Market derivatives have priced in a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week, with expectations of another cut by April 2026 [2]